BCH 225.5 $
rang relatif 26/25 · tier laggard · 7j -8.1% · 30j +7.2%
Régime par timeframe (Kaufman ER)
source : context_state @ 2026-09-12 21:07 · ATR1h 0.603% · TP cible 3% · trend_aligned=False
Support / Résistance par timeframe — pivots planchers
| TF | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 |
|---|
| 15m | 224.4 | 224.8 | 225.3 | 225.7 | 226.3 |
| 1h | 224.3 | 224.7 | 225.4 | 225.8 | 226.4 |
| 4h | 220.2 | 222.7 | 226.7 | 229.3 | 233.3 |
| 1d | 208.6 | 218.3 | 228.4 | 238 | 248.1 |
calculé : P=(H+L+C)/3, R1=2P−L, S1=2P−H, R2=P+(H−L), S2=P−(H−L) — sur la dernière bougie CLÔTURÉE de chaque tf (market_ohlcv/binance). Pas de niveau deviné.
Matrice substrat × stratégie (bot evd)
| substrat | poids | cote W | SH | RG | signal |
|---|
| volume_breakout ⚠ mismatch | 65.7% | 75 | 40 | 76 | court |
| macd ⚠ mismatch | 17.0% | 59 | 37 | 53 | court |
| trend_follow | 10.7% | 71 | 50 | 72 | court |
| bollinger ⚠ mismatch | 6.2% | 36 | 11 | 34 | court |
| vwap | 0.2% | 12 | 0 | 19 | court |
| mean_reversion | 0.2% | 32 | 3 | 34 | court |
poids = bots.adn_tactical (evd) · cotes = substrat_scores (forward-return live, 0–100, 50=neutre) · ⚠ = poids ≥5% sur un substrat faible dans le régime/sens courant.
Posture du bot (dernier verdict — pas un oracle)
| macro | écosyst. | adn | technique | risque |
|---|
| 46 | 100 | 79 | 62 | 75 |
source : verdicts @ 2026-09-12 08:04 (tribunal interne ; macro=btc_trend+macro_metrics, écosyst=cross_sectional, technique=OHLCV/substrats).
Journal achat / vente (net des coûts BreakoutProp)
| lane | sens | entrée | sortie | P&L | motif | date |
|---|
| control | short | 225.3 | 225.9 | -5.1 | corr_derisk | 2026-09-10 16:49 |
| random_ctrl | short | 242.1 | 237.9 | +37.0 | corr_derisk | 2026-09-10 12:44 |
| control | short | 245.9 | 238.4 | +63.7 | tp_hit | 2026-09-10 10:39 |
| random_ctrl | short | 249.7 | 242.1 | +57.0 | tp_hit | 2026-09-10 02:05 |
| random_ctrl | long | 259.6 | 255 | -53.3 | sl_hit | 2026-09-09 13:14 |
| evd | long | 265.2 | 257.6 | -47.8 | sl_hit | 2026-09-07 16:24 |
| random_ctrl | short | 260.8 | 265.2 | -36.6 | circuit_breaker | 2026-09-07 13:44 |
| random_ctrl | long | 250.9 | 258.6 | +90.0 | tp_hit | 2026-09-05 07:04 |
| random_ctrl | long | 247.7 | 250.5 | +19.3 | time_stop | 2026-08-31 09:09 |
| random_ctrl | long | 253.5 | 254.8 | +13.7 | corr_derisk | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| random_ctrl | long | 251.8 | 252.2 | +1.8 | corr_derisk | 2026-08-30 15:19 |
| control | long | 252.6 | 249.3 | -54.7 | sl_hit | 2026-08-30 14:44 |
source : trades (join bots) · P&L net depuis le fix coûts du 11/06.
evd vs control sur BCH
capital_fictif (base 5000 au fork) — bots evd #13 / control #45.